India Pak

Really tired of the humming and buzzing sound of mosquitoes around. Seems like they have had enough of my blood so they are on a sugar high.

Its been 68 years but Indo Pak conflict seems nowhere close to resolution. There are numerous reasons. Both sides are at fault so it is futile to elaborate the historical context of the conflict. But It is worthy to highlight the role of superpowers like Britain, America or China.

Britain created the conflict by intentionally following divide and rule policy and later arbitrarily drawing a line on map without taking history, culture, topology and resources into account. In fact, India Pak secretaries were locked up in a room for three days so that divide all the resources like typewriters, table covers, bicycles, or other government property in amicable manner. How absurd it may sound but such things happened. I wish if they could have resolved Kashmir also on that day. Or if they could deploy such out-of-box or in-the-room approach in contemporary times.

If Britain created it, USA fueled it. Those early years had the best chances of resolution. Both countries were kids. We had generation of leaders who enjoyed bonhomie with each other despite bitterness of violence at the time of partition. But like Shakuni led to Mahabharata, Uncle Sam's cold war tactics gave patronage to Pakistan under NATO umbrella and we had quick wars in 65 or 71. Uncle's infatuation has not reduced over the years and even nowadays he keeps providing ammunition (F-16s) to Pakistan which gives it a false sense of security or victory in the event of war.

Had it just been Uncle, things could be managed. But Pak has got bad company also. If USA fueled it, China tacitly encouraged it so that it could keep India busy on multiple frontier.

So with Alcoholic parent (Britain), pampering uncle (USA) and wicked friends (China), Pakistan is no doubt misguided about its power and future and ill-advised about India and Kashmir.

One generally can not defy the laws of nature. Same is true for life-cycle of Nations.The middle years are generally more enterprising and productive than childhood fun and old age inability. For Pakistan also, this stands true.
It enterprised the terror industry under guidance of Shakuni uncle. But the venture failed to yield it desired benefit. Rather, it ended up burning its own hand.

Now when Pak has tried almost arrows in the basket, what is the future of India Pak relation? Well, putting the conclusion first, Issue will be resolved by 2025 if politicians takes the driving seat. Alternatively, It could take up to 2040 if economics or businessmen drive the process. And 2050 if military drives the process. The end result would be same in all the scenarios with couple of fixes here and there.

Kashmir will be demilitarized. A joint force of India Pak army will administer Kashmir. But in the time, Kashmir independence issue will remain alive. India may keep the whole portion of Ladakh and Jammu. Pak may prefer to keep gilgit baltistan region in quid-pro-quo arrangement. The valley will become an independent nation 40 to 50 years after we achieve this setup.

Institution of SAARC will gain substance. The South Asia will become visa free from a tourism and health purpose.

My predictions seems so common sense to me that I don't even feel a need to explain the rationale behind them. Even the mosquitoes have gone to sleep by now. So may be I should also. Good Night