Budget 2018

Indian economy is standing at an inflection point. It is akin to a patient whose wounds are being operated upon and hence business sentiments across India give an impression of it as a patient lying in the hospital ward under mild anesthetic effect. On one hand, IMF and World Bank are projecting India as the upcoming fastest growing economy in the world. The index of industrial production is coming up and purchasing managers index is also showing positive signals. However, in contrast, the job market remains sluggish and the dream workforce of prime minister's 21st-century vision is now forced to sell pakodas to make two end meals. The window of reviving the job market is very small for this government else there is a risk of losing the power in the year 2019. In this context, the budget of 2018 holds absolute significance. So let us see what can we expect from this budget.

One thing is for sure from the election campaigns of UP and Gujrat, the BJP would leave no stone unturned in holding onto power. Thus, it would have three gameplans achieve its purpose. First is the real revival in the growth. This would come by reviving the job market. Now jobs are not flowing from the manufacturing sector and service sector was becoming the den of black money so it is still under operation. Therefore, the most vote-fetching option is to invest in the agriculture. Nearly 58% people derive their livelihood from the agriculture sector. Plus, they are swing voters who could be easily turned into favor by reviving job guarantee scheme or loan waiver scheme as we saw in 2009 election and in recent UP election. The second way to revive the growth is to increase the public investment in the economy. Build new roads, launch new townships, open industrial corridors, complete the pending projects like dedicated freight corridor etc. Building public infrastructures like roads and townships are the first step in generating more jobs, activities and new businesses in the region.

The second strategy would be to wage a mini-war against Pakistan and Pak-sponsored terrorism. This could ignite the patriotic sentiments in the country and may result in victory for Namo just like it did for Shri Atal Bihari Vajpayee in 1999 after Kargil. However, given the poor state of defense preparedness, it would be a risky adventure to fight Pakistan. Thus a large chunk of the imminent budget may go for upgrading defense infrastructure. Pak-bashing is one of the surest ways to win the election in India and our PM will not refrain from exercising such options.

The third way to generate more votes is to fulfill the promise of Ram Mandir, revoking article 370 and cleaning Ganga. This would help in arousing communal sentiments in the country and would definitely provoke Hindu fundamentalists to vote in favor of BJP. The project of Ram Mandir does not require any separate money allocation. It would require some political investment in resolving the crisis. The article 370 would be achievable by the end of this year in the parliament but state government partnership with PDP is a big roadblock. Hence, BJP may go for an auxiliary goal of article 35A in return. Cleaning Ganga would also require some administrative effort however some money may be allocated to express the process of cleaning. Already Ganga water pipeline is laid down in some part of the U.P. and other states of the country. More than the thirst for water, it is aimed at dousing the thirst for the religious fundamentalism among the masses.

Overall, one can expect this budget to favor agriculture, public investment, defense and clean Ganga project over other areas/segment. However, the country could only be sustained in the long term when we are able to fulfill of demand of jobs rather than Ram Mandir or Pak-bashing. And more importantly, it should be more than chai-pakoda.

Update

I asked him "what time do you wake up"? He replied with his characteristic smile 4:00 saar in the morning. And then how long do you work here? We are picked at 5:00 AM from our place and gets dropped here by 6:00 AM. Then we stay here till 5:00 PM in the evening, he said. So then what time do you reach home? He said 9:00 PM and then we cook food. But wait a minute. Why 9:00 PM? Your job is over at 5:00 PM isn't it? Sir, we go for another part-time job and finish it to reach home at 9:00 PM. All the while his faced beamed the smile as the white light flows from the bulb. In a split second, it made me realize how lucky I am. I don't know why but I felt a sense of relief after listening to his work hours and story. If he can work for 16 hours a day for 1000 dirhams of saving and carry that beaming smile, can't I do away with that gloomy and tensed look falling on my face due to excess work? I have heard some desi brothers settled abroad often saying Indians are not hard working. I believe they have not seen the Indians like my office sweeper. We have everything in us to build create and innovate the future of human civilization. All we need is a right ecosystem and little guidance.

Yesterday I visited Global village in Dubai. It was a cultural shopping complex with theme based shopping complex from 32 nations. For someone who loves shopping, this could have been a paradise. I saw the stunt show with cars screeching on the arena and bikes jumping up in the air. I tasted Baklawa the Turkish sweet, Bosnian sweet, Italy's Batata and avocado juice. It was a fun evening. I did not buy anything. I do not know why but I could have bought something there may be zafran. There were some cultural events from different continents and countries. This was a fun sight to watch.

The new semester has begun. I have started teaching computer networks, and cryptography. Along with this, I am also taking some labs. It has become really unmanageable with wedding and interview preparation. Most of it is in mind rather than actual load. However, I am learning to cope up with things. I need to attend various mocks. Time is running. Let us see how will it unfold.

Interview thread: Conversation 1

Saurabh, What do you understand by the office of profit?

Why are we not able to compete with China in manufacturing or why the make in India mission is not working?
Sir, we have a serious cost-disadvantage in manufacturing due to high logistics costs. Secondly, our skill India program does not reciprocate manufacturing sectors need. Third, manufacturing job is seen as a more laborious yet less incentive job so people prefer services. Fourth the policy uncertainties are pushing people away from the manufacturing sector. Lack of coherent export linkages is also an issue.


Do you think that governments decision to stop Haj Subsidy is justified?
Yes, Sir, It is a very welcome step. I say this for 3 reasons. Firstly, The obligation of Haj only applies to people who can afford Haj so anyone taking subsidy is not fulfilling the complete obligation. Secondly, the subsidy will be used for the very productive purpose of minority girl education where it is needed badly. Thirdly most of the subsidy was used for rich/affluent Muslims. Fourthly, various committees, court, and even Muslims organizations had called for its phasing out.

The situation of the economy?
There is a slowdown in business due to tax uncertainty and poor sentiments but future is bright. Recent industrial production figures are strong. The manufacturing sector is coming up. FDI figures are high. The concern areas are low investment rate, poor unorganized sector output, and slow agricultural reform.


Q. What do you understand from a smart city?
A. Sir, a smart city is a 3 layer architecture. At the base is basic services in the economy. At the middle level is technology and at the third level is people. A city would be called smart if it is able to provide effective basic services to the people using the lever of technology.

Q. Is technology an essential part of it?
A. If it is smart then somewhere we need to involve technology as its integral part.

Q. So how should we go about it? How would you make Agra a smart city?
A. Sir, the most viable and effective first step to make a city smart is
Bring metro rail system and unified public transport system in the city.
The second step would be to bring technology for efficient waste collection and sanitation.
The third thing would be surveillance centers in the cities.

Q. What do you mean surveillance system?
A. Sir, it means we need to install CCTV cameras in the entire city, in every nook and corner and deploy the personnel in a centralized city-based location so that any law and order issue could be monitored from the surveillance center itself. For example, traffic police need not cut challans. Rather an overspeeding car or red light or helmet violation could be captured on the camera and fine amount could be deducted from the person's account.

Q. Then Why metro has to be a beginning point?
A. Possibilities are endless. But beginning would be from Metro because it has gained a country-wide acceptance and we also have experience in the field.

Q. What are the advantages of the smart city paradigm?
A. Citizen participation, control on migration, people empowerment, need-based intervention, bottom-up approach, innovation and creativity came out.
Projects like integrated command and control, smart water projects, waste management projects.

Q. What are the 3 most significant concern for Indian state?
A. Sir, the first is employment generation. Second is collapsing urbanization. The third is skilling India.

Q. What is India's big strength in contemporary era?
A. Reform orientation of government and people is one of the big positive for us.

Q. Why has India not been able to generate enough good runners?
A. Money, Sporting culture, Failure to nurture our talent
School level sports competitions, dedicated parks and playground facilities, sports stadiums in localities
Sports injury insurance, Caste class barriers, Excessive career orientation

But the scenario is changing off late. People are affording sports at their own cost and we have excelled in Tennis, Badminton, Chess, Kabbadi, and cricket.
Names to be dropped: Dutee Chand, Shiva Kesavan,

Q. Most untapped areas in India?
A. Tourism, Sports, Agriculture

Q. What is status of clean Ganga and how the present program different from previous programs?
A. Sir, cleaning Ganga is a work in progress. It will take atleast a decade. Present program has specific projects on sewage treatment plans, crematorium and waste management. It includes state and district in the implementations. Youth and civil society groups are given prominent role.

Dud and Mud

Sky is lar'ge

standing far

Sleepy eye

Can't see the sky

Legs are small

fear the fall

Heart is weak

feelin' freaked

Hands are lenghty

sky becomes sandy

canned in the box

chained in the locks

drenched with the mud

feeling dud

Feelin dud feelin dud 

feelin dud feelin dud

An extra mile

without a smile

An ounce of will

almost nil

Trapped in glass

lacking class

So much waste

no good taste

Muscular pain

all in vain

Fluttering mind

makes me blind

The last step

with heavy breath

A broken oath, broken heart

broken will, falling short

Missing the mad

feeling bad

Missing the action

so much tension

Final destination

so much hesitation

So feeling dud.. 

something amiss

be bullish

something wrong

be strong

something dry

don't be shy

Dont be a pleader

bring out the leader

Say no, get lost

say this at any cost

Become mad

feel glad

walk and walk

never stop

may be small

or just a crawl

but with time

it should be fine

A walk to moon

should begin soon

be it heavy be it small

be it slow or  banal

One day you'll reach your dream

Locks will open heart scream

Blessings bestowed on forehead

He is with you at every step

dnt feel dud.. dnt feel dud

keep walking in the mud

Update: Lost in translation

Last few weeks have been very happening. Cricket tournament, gym, research proposal, course preparation, India trip, UPSC result and an Interview.

So much travel and new experiences. Somehow blogging became a casualty of this busy schedule. Despite the busy schedule, there was a lot of self-talk and introspection. My international experiences and conversation with people at home and abroad led to some recurrent themes like lack of faith in democracy and inclination towards benevolent dictatorship, skepticism about future of India and rising appeal of communal thinking. Such discussions and thoughts gave me some sleepless nights. It made me wonder if the idea of India is so weak. Is bringing change next to impossible in India? Could there be something which could be done to fix India's poisonous air, polluted water, and congested roads? These questions led to a further set of questions which I am going to discuss here.

First of the question was can there be a change with a compassionate and empathic thinking or do we need to be ruthless and stern in taking tough decisions? Change often leads to pain and displacement. As a result, some casualty and problems are sure to occur. In such situation, how can we bring change? How can we expand roads and acquire new land without disturbing the routine way of life? One of the solutions is to have a new institutional mechanism of rehabilitation ministry in India which will dedicatedly work toward providing a new arrangement of life to displaced people. Another could be to implement Benami property act in letter and spirit. How much all of these are problem specific solutions which target only at the surface and do not solve the root problem. The root of the issue is how far Indians are ready to stretch themselves in the nation-building exercise and how to arouse a nationalist consciousness in the times of self-interested instinct? This is something we need to ponder upon. 

Another question which shook my mind was how can we bring in and apply wisdom from USA or Dubai to India and use it as a developmental model for the country? The answer to this is we just can't do this. Teleporting a USA or Dubai model to India would be a crime. We need to do things as per Indian context. For example, we can not use the transport model of USA. Ours is a big mix of the small and large vehicle so we need to tailor our system accordingly. We need to push extensive research in these areas. Be it urban problems, road transport or waste management, we need to factor in India's scale, magnitude and social structure into account.  

The third question which become important in this context is can we bring these changes with democracy or do we need a dictator? Most of the people I interacted voted against democracy and reposed their faith in dictatorial model of governance. This gave me a feeling of gloom and Deja vu as if the aristotle's prediction about democracy is coming to life. 

Anyway, of the three questions, I may have my doubts about the first two but for the third my conviction remains strong. Democracy is the only way India can sustain and succeed. Considering our diversity and uniqueness, there is just no other alternative.