Tuesday, July 25, 2017

The books


A thought popped up in my mind so just listing it here.
1. Psychology paper 2 book
2. Psychology Q and A book
3. A self-help book for UPSC aspirants
4. A book on Brain Drain [Kind of research work]
5. Meri Kailash Yatra

Will write these books in time to come.

Friday, July 21, 2017

The Chinese chowmine


The India China border dispute has taken a turn for the worse. The Doklam road construction issue is escalating in a manner which pushes the two nations who have not fired a single bullet in last 40 years on the path of war.
India is considering the Doklam as an area associated with Tri-Junction whereas China claims it as her sovereign territory. Given Chinese rhetoric and belligerent reaction, the issue may lead to a short term war against Chinese. In this regard, we need to raise some relevant questions.

First: Is India right in asserting itself in Doklam area?

The answer is yes. India has long been on a back foot vis-a-vis China. Be it OBOR-CPEC, Azhar Masood issue, Brahmaputra dam issue, NSG membership or trade deficit between the two nations, India could never get across Chinese wall on the international forums. This is leading to a diffident image of India across the world.
So, by asserting itself on Doklam issue, India would reinstall confidence among its partner nations and its citizenry that it is capable of protecting their as well as its own national interest. It would send a clear signal to Beijing which seems to be playing violin over our defensive approach that India can not be taken for granted.

Second: What if the war breaks out between the two nation?
There is an old saying that in war, winners lose and losers die. This may have been true in the pre-19th-century era but it is not true anymore. The wars of the 21st century are controlled short term strategic wars. In this context, A war with China would be good for our country. It will lead to anti-China rhetoric in our country and would dampen the trade and commerce with Beijing. This will prove to be a godsend opportunity to revive the dying Make-in India project.
The general business principles tell that Make in India can not succeed unless we displace China in some or other way. The war could be one very strong excuse to put trade imposition against China. There is an old adage, "Necessity is the mother of all inventions". Any kind of trade embargo would boost Indian innovation.
Further, It'll flush out the free radicals from Indian ecosystem by infusing the nutrients of patriotism. It'll awaken the society from a state of deep slumber and help in reinvigorating the national consciousness. Moreover, this will also give us time to put GST in place.

But then another question: Is India prepared for war?
The answer is no country would ever be prepared for a war. But India is better placed than what could have been a situation 5 years ago when Daulat Beg Oldie happened. The reason being, Government is financially in a sound position due to high FDI and better tax collection. Inflation is at an all time low. This will allow RBI to mint new currency without adding too much to the inflationary pressure. Monsoon is going to be good so India will have enough on its plate. Trade is any way slow due to GST issue. So war-time will increase the economic activities. NPA crisis is an issue which may worsen things further but the excuse of war will allow the government to take extraordinary measures to handle the issue. The extraordinary issue may be in the form of nationalization of the resources or heavy taxation or financial emergency and alike measures. Overall, in the economic sense, we are very well placed though not fully prepared to tackle the consequences of war.

But could the same thing be said for military preparations as well?
The answer is No. The Indian military is severely unprepared to deal with the Chinese challenge. The 2012 proposal of training a mountain force to tackle the Chinese challenge has remained on the paper. Therefore, we must devise a right exit strategy even before entering this realist game of power politics.

But if the military is certain to face defeat in the game of power politics then what is the point?
The point is India should go for a controlled short term rhetorical war. In fact, War would be a wrong choice of words. Let us call it a micro-battle between India and China in a border area of 2 kilometers. Indian leadership and diplomacy should follow the progress closely and rather than winning the war, we should leverage this to defeat China diplomatically and economically.

At the least, by way of Doklam issue, China should get a clear message that India can not be taken for granted anymore.




Tuesday, July 18, 2017

Modi 2.0 update

Modi Ji continues to impress us with his new ideas, idioms, mnemonics and politics. He is a man of vision and action. In a short span of three years, who has undertaken major reforms like Swachha Bharat, Demonetization and Goods and services tax. All of them were very desirable initiatives having a lot of popular appeal. Possibly, this is the reason for his rating of credibility in the nation. After steamrolling the opposition in UP, he is all set to get a majority in Rajya Sabha in time to come. This will certainly make him the most powerful leader since the time of Indira Gandhi.

But a moot question which we need to raise is whether any of his efforts really yielding any result? 
Recently Supreme court remarked that holy Ganga has become a drain for wastage of money. Nearly 12000 crores are being spent but not even a drop of Ganga has got cleaned? Similarly, a large share of the money was wasted on the entire drama of demonetization but no accounting is done on the results. Nearly 65 people died standing in the queue but the nation does not know how much amount of black money is filtered in the system.   Kashmir is burning like hell. All the goodwill progress of last 20 years seems to be undone in first 20 months of the government. Same is the story of GST. The business community is so ill-informed and scared of the move that market has taken a serious dip since the launch of GST.

But Modi Ji is still able to sustain his development and change propaganda and bhakts are singing paeans of his vision at a louder voice, shriller than before. His argument is these are short-term pain for long-term gain. This is true because all these changes are just a matter of time. As a fact, the country can never be fully prepared to deal with these changes. Sooner or later, whichever government is in power, measures like tax reforms and cleanliness awareness campaign are necessary pills for the nation's development. But as a responsible leader, one can not overlook the negative aspects of such initiatives. 

In a country, where a large segment of the population lives on the fringe, such path breaking radical changes runs the risk of massive unemployment and social-economic churning.   In such scenario, execution becomes the weakest link of the governance. For example, Swacha Bharat failed because there was no proper execution. It is difficult to find a public loo or a dustbin in most of the crowded public places. This is sad. One is forced to turn his pocket or bag as a dustbin to keep India clean. Schemes like start-up India, and other missions are also falling apart. 

Modi Ji would better serve the country if he looks into the behavioral and usability aspect of policy making and policy execution. Changing policy and laws is the easier part of the government. The real problem lies in changing the attitude of people. The media of the day is generous to him but history never forgives the failure. This is high time to act for him. The choice is his. Either he can be Allauddin Khilji of post modern India or he could be remembered as Muhammad Bin Tughlaq of 21st century.






A glimpse from the past

Nowadays, I am poring over my old notes and assimilating my old knowledge base which I had mastered once. While poring over my notes, I came across a 6 line principle akin to what Gandhi Ji proposed as six sins. Here I am listing them for public consumption:

Knowledge without presentation
Strategy without adaptability
Preparation without confidence

Have no relevance.

Excitement without drugs
Happiness without reason
Action without anxiety

Are key to success.

Nowadays, I am missing my daily targets too often. It is bad. Really bad. When I contemplate on this, the reason is clear. I miss the target because I don't set a target. There are so many new things unfolding in life. But I am not sure about what to write and what to skip? Overall, It is fun.   Exam pressure is slowly building up. The syllabus is huge. At one point, it seems like "I know it all" and then suddenly the gears change and I feel like "There is so much to do". Deep somewhere I know it's all manageable. My only wish is to get over my inertia of daily writing. Rest would automatically fall in place. 

An old-time friend visited a few days back. It came as a surprise visit. I am still not sure about the purpose of the visit. But it was good talking to him, listening to his experiences and knowing the other side of the world.

Nowadays, most of my time goes into preparing for the subject. But the mode of preparation is very haphazard. There is no real target for any day. This is like an unforgivable sin for a person preparing for the examination. Another issue is fragmentation of the day in a variety of activities which reduces the productivity of study hours. For example, writing this blog in the middle of the day when I have so much pending all around. All it requires is some sort of strict intervention and discipline on my part. The feeling is slowly building up. Hopefully, this routine thing will get fixed on its own.

Some very important developments are in process. But dropping those details here would be unjust to their importance. Rest is fun, love and peace.