Donald Trump has secured his candidature for presidential election as the Republican party candidate. When he started, almost everyone had written him off. However, beating against all odds he did emerge as a winner. And my hunch is he is going to be the next US president. What would that mean to India? How did he manage to do this?
Well, World is in a transition phase from pax Americana to pax Sinica. America, the supercop is receding and China the dragon is spreading its tentacles. Thus, the candidature of someone like Trump who could touch strings of America's lost pride and reduced influence in the world was a but natural occurrence.
Trump started with his classic venom against Muslim population exhorting to ostracize them from American society. He showed the dream of building a wall along Mexican border, called for some troops in Syria but at the same time talked about refraining from entering into other's war. It all seemed so common-sensical to American population that a large number of them rallied around his vision and chose him as their leader.
But a big question looms over everyone's head? Can he deliver all this? My hunch is he will be more offensive and dominating than any of his predecessor. The psychological study of his pompous past and his tactics of ridiculing his opponents like lyin 'Ted Cruz' shows that his is a ruthless and forceful personality. If ever a 9/11 is repeated then Trump won't refrain from repeating the Afghanistan adventure of America. Thus, in Trump we'll not see a benevolent dictator rather he will be a trying to reposition America as a king who is better feared than loved. Would he be able to do that?
Given the state of the economy of the world and kind of polarisation which exists today, I think he will succeed to some extent. For example on issues of military intervention and trade, he may be able to push China on the backfoot but multipolarity has become a feature of world politics today. Therefore, despite his best effort, he can not reverse the changes which are irreversible in nature. Yes, China will suffer some damage in the course.
How about India? In my opinion, the idea of NAM will get its lifeline. It will become relevant again. India will have to utilise its anti-china appeal to woo the US. Trump would certainly respond to that. However, playing with China and USA is like choosing between tiger or dragon. We'll have to walk the tightrope between the devil and deep sea. In the course, India will turn back to its old friend Russia for reestablishing connection which it has sidelined due to Putin's cold shoulder to Modi's overtures.
Let us see, how this new era of American politics will unfold. It would be interesting to see how a hardcore American attitude of individuality, dominance, force, pomp and selfishness will fit in this multicultural and globalized world.
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