I always wonder if Modi is a philosopher king of Plato or is he a Gorbachev of USSR who is trying to bring perestroika in the form of demonetization. I was not a big Modi fan in the teen years of my life. His Hitler-style of working and communal blemishes on his past always made me skeptical of whether he would be able to lead India in secular and sober sense or not. However, I started listening to his speeches more regularly after he got elected to power. It changed my perception a little bit. The recent step of demonetization has created mixed feelings in my mind.
I love him for his boldness and courage in taking this step. The political-economic-social cost of this step is very huge. He has put his personal reputation at the stake in the process. But on the downside, he has pushed the whole country in an uncertain territory.
He is considered akin to philosopher king of Plato because he has no political dynasty. He is learned and a self-made individual who has learned from the book of life itself. He is above nepotism and corruption. But the analogy is incomplete given the fact that he does show favoritism to his party BJP. His rejection of opposition which is essential for the function of democracy creates doubt in people's mind.
On the other hand, he is seen as Gorbachev of USSR because be could not correctly gauge the kind of preparation which country needs to successfully reap the dividends of the demonetization plan. India will not collapse as a result of this. But a general outcome would be the end of saving culture in the country. Jobs will be lost because businesses would be forced to follow rulebook. However, the new jobs won't be generated immediately. Every new industry and new business have a certain gestation period. The setup and flourishment of the business will take time. Therefore, for the time being, the joblessness will be on the rise. This will create a fertile ground for agitations and unrest.
Amid the dynamics of Plato and Gorbachev, what may eventually come out is a Putin of Russia. In the aftermath of USSR collapse, the country had become a den of oligarchy and corruption. The project of accelerated privatization under Boris Yeltsin had virtually transferred all the political and economic control in the hands of Businessmen like Guinsky and Berezovsky. Just like Adani and Ambani of India, they became the invisible king or the king-makers of Russia. However, when Berezovsky helped Putin's rise to power, little did he know that he is putting nails in his own coffin. As soon as Putin got hold of power, he asked these oligarchs to surrender their shares to the state. He set out fair processes of auction and tender. He meticulously managed his image through the use of media. This led to the revival of Russia and era of Putin.
The same may happen in the contemporary India. Although with an Indian twist to the things. Modi may call for banking nationalization in the light of bad assets. He has already nationalized the total household savings of the country by way of demonetization. He may ask the big NPA holders businesses to surrender their assets to the state and may play an active role in their auctioning process. He will not disturb the big houses of Adani and Ambani but he will pick on the second-rung business class which has huge bad loans and may assign this to the new players. Already Media is polarized heavily in the country.
Anyway, be it a philosopher-king or the Gorbachev or the Putin, Amid all the confusion and chaos of demonetization, India has no other option except Modi. Only he has the guts to go the full length on the issues of Benami reforms and digital economy. The fear is in the process he may end up killing the whole generation of the entrepreneurial class. Plus the lack of innovation on the part of businesses is leading to the stagnation in the job market.
India is standing at an inflection point. It may go either way. Either it can continue with the status quo or it may forcefully tread the path of reforms. Time will tell whether Modi will become Putin or will he remain a Gorbachev.
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