The deadline of 50 days is fast approaching. The government and opposition are busy in making claims and counter claims on the success and failure of the scheme of demonetization. PM Modi is still aggressive about the program of change in the country. He is adamant on the future course of action which involves Benami transactions and land registrations. Whether he would be able to do this successfully is something to ponder upon.
Firstly, I must admit that despite being a limited liberal and anti-rightist, I admire PM Modi fo taking such a bold step. We go to shopping and even while buying a pair of undies, we vacillate and dilly dally. But he took such a hard decision for the entire nation. This is an example of courage and leadership skills. It requires an immense level of self-confidence and mental resilience to bear loads of criticism and ridicule which might come your way. Hats off and ashtanga pranam to such conviction. With this move, Modi has become a larger than life figure.
Some people have compared this to Indira Gandhi's emergency era. To an extent these analyst are right. Those who have read the literature of that era and those who have lived in that era can tell you that Emergency sustained itself for two years because largely people accepted it. People loved the discipline. People loved the strict enforcement of law and order. It was only later that people realized the kind of damage it had done to our democratic political system.
The same is the case now. People are accepting demonetization as it is wrapped in the cover of the fight against black money, corruption, and nationalism. It calls for sacrifice in the national interest. Masses are feeling involved in a social economic project of this grand scale and therefore dutifully standing in the queues before ATM. But people has a limit of patience. They would not hesitate from retaliating in the situation does not become normal in time to come. Their best possible response would come through election ballot. When the collective beep of Indian masses will sounds the bugle of defeat for BJP.
The project of demonetization has become a sort of bone in the neck of BJP's fight against corruption. Now a situation has come where the only option is to swallow the whole bone with a cry of pain. Rolling back or ducking away is not an option for BJP. Somewhere at this point, it seems as if demonetization is becoming a political failure as BJP is running short of options. It may become an economic success in time to come due to it's thrust on the cashless economy and increased tax revenues but that will take time.
The agenda of Benami transaction would be very difficult to implement. We do not have enough tax officers who can actually go through the records and do all the tax analysis. Even the loophole of turning black to white money past-demonetization has not fallen on the net of tax officer. It is like, in the pursuit of getting milk of milk and water of water, the government is trying to catch the thief's underwear rather than the actual thief. The lakhs of crores of money was turned from black to white but the government is only able to capture some kg of gold or some chunk of new currencies in its raid. It requires a large amount of workforce to actually scrutinize all the accounts and catch the black money.
Even for Benami transaction act, I am keeping my fingers crossed given the state of affair in India. People who are the biggest accumulator of wealth the bureaucrats, the politicians, the taxmen, and the policemen are the one who has to implement this. The only victim of this whole scheme would be the middle-class businessmen. One who took risks and worked hard to earn all this. Obviously, he did engage in a little bit of corruption but that was the norm of the day. It was about his survival. It was not his wish or greed.
A moot question to ask is then what is the alternative? Frankly, I do not have any direct answer. The big mistake has already been made when demonetization was launched without proper preparation or supporting reforms. Now people are only a moot spectator. It's like a situation of the year 1942. The country is in the God's hand. I hope political class act with prudence and does not try to antagonize the situation further but that would be so anti of their own existence.
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