Calibrated exit: Lock down conundrum

India is facing an existential crisis against COVID-19. Had the debate been simply between livelihood and lives, protection of lives would have been a certain choice.  But in India, a large part of the economy survive on hand to mouth situation. Nearly 22% of people are below the poverty line and an additional 15% is just above the poverty line. Hence choice is between immediate loss of lives vs future loss of lives. Therefore, a key question is how to unlock the lockdown and how to resolve this conundrum. 

The unlocking of the lockdown is going to as difficult an administrative and economically puzzling task as was the enforcement of lockdown. Considering the cluster spread of COID-19, a decision on withdrawal of Lockdown has to be well thought out decision. 

1. Considering the state government's inclination to extend the lockdown and increase in the COVID-19 cases in the past few days, it is better to extend the complete lockdown till 24th April.

2. After 24th April, there should be three phased uplift on the lockdown. Each phase should span for two to three weeks. 

3. In the first phase, only essential services, food, and pharmaceutical, supply chain offices, hospitals should be opened. All the malls, shopping complex, dine-restaurant should remain closed.  All the private offices (into non-essential services), temples,  clubs, social places should remain closed.  It will be an approximate complete lockdown. City limits should remain restricted. This phase should last until 4th May. 

4. In the second phase, Offices with 40% staff capacity should be opened. Businesses will slowly get back to life. Metro and public transport will operate at 60% capacity. People are encouraged to use private vehicles. All public places like parks, malls, and restaurants, etc. and social gatherings should be banned. This should last till 20th May i.e. another 2 weeks. Intercity travel should remain restricted except for the movement of essential goods and services and in emergency situations. Home delivery of food may be allowed.

5. In the third phase, offices with 60% staff capacity should be opened.  Movement within the city should be allowed. Businesses like malls, shopping complexes, etc could be opened but with strict crowd management and sanitization rules. This could last till 31st May.

6. After this, if things are under control and go well, we can open the economy fully with the permission of intercity travel. The decision on the containment zones and hotspot could be taken as per the situation.

In the meantime, the government should unleash its stored food stock of 80 MT lying in FCI godowns. The small teams of young migrant workers resting in government schools should be utilized for driving mobile vans which could deliver food and vegetable at the public's doorstep.  And the government should switch to Universal basic Income mode and transfer some cash amount in each account on the basis of the existing balance in the account. Moreover, RBI's and PSU's dividend income contribution to government budgetary support should be increased in order to create some fiscal space in the economy.

These are challenging times and if we are able to overcome these times, we will definitely become a force to reckon with.

Migrant labor issue

Migrant laborers are always the first ones to face the first brunt of economic instability, political upheaval, and social discord. Be it Marathi Manush issue or Assam exodus from Bangalore or the recent Corona Virus crisis. There is no social security provided to them. There is no political support because mostly they are not able to exercise their voting rights. Mostly work in the unorganized sector and survive on hand to mouth situation. Except for the white-collar IT workers, most of them are unskilled or semi-skilled working as household help, maids or factory/farm laborers in big cities and rich states of the country. Hence, any issue of labor reform would be incomplete without addressing their plights and without doing justice to their needs and rights.

In this context, the following are actionable suggestions worth pondering upon.

1. We should open a migrant worker's office in each district. It is like an embassy of outside laborers at the district level.

2. All migrants must compulsorily register in the migrant labor's office. Following database could be prepared for each migrant:

2.1. What areas do a person migrates and in which season?
2.2. How much do they earn and save during migration?
2.3. What kind of work do they perform?
2.4. What are the skills/semi-skills do they possess?
2.5. What is the duration of migration?
2.6. What is the home state, city, town, address?
2.7. What is age?
2.8. Do they possess a bank account? If Yes, what is their bank account?
2.9. What is their UID number?
2.10. Are they citizens of our country?

3.  All the businesses should also submit the name and aadhar of all the migrant workers employed in six monthly declarations. This will allow us in accounting informal economy in GDP estimation. 

This database can be prepared using the partial database available with the government and police stations. Rest data can be collected by launching a district-wise helpline number. Labor ministry can also play a constructive role in the pursuit.

This will help in the following 5 ways:
1. We can perform targeted campaigns in the future.
2. With the use of such a database, the government can provide money directly in the bank account.
3. It will help in the overall management of COVID and similar kind of future crisis.
4. It will bring some organization in the world's largest unorganized workforce.

5. Such offices can act as voting centers for migrant workers in the future so that they can become part of the political narrative.

It is blasphemous that we have not done this to date.  Now is the time to work on these fronts and help in delivering justice, rights, and quality of life to migrant workers.

Corona - 4: Credible ways to deal with crisis

Much has been written and said about ways to deal with Corona Virus. Social distancing seems to be the most viable proactive step to curb the spread of the disease. The whole of India has already been put under the lockdown and various unprecedented administrative steps have already been taken. I am listing some miscellaneous suggestions which could help in dealing with the problem. These suggestions should be viewed in the context of the post-covid situation and in the medium-term when the country is trying to flatten its Covid death curve.

1. Focus on developing a cheap surface scanner that can tell whether a surface is infected with Corona Virus or not. Considering the advances in image processing, biochemical sensors, and high-resolution imaging, this should not be very difficult. Why can't we develop a simple chip embedded on a handheld device which can tell us about the presence of a virus?

2. Impose the crowd restrictions at all public places. If a public place has more than a threshold density of people then people should be turned away. For example, if a restaurant is full then people wait outside. The same concept should apply to malls, tourist spots, hill stations, and temples. Each public civil infrastructure should use non-invasive technology like AI-based face recognition and impose these regulations. This will make more sense when we will uplift the Covid-19 curfew.

3. Everything should be government-managed. If we leave it for the common public to deliver essential goods, the concept of total lockdown will not work. All the young government officers below the age of 35 years could be called for service in case the country needs more hands.  The mobile street vendor vans should be deployed during the times of Covid-19 so that door to door supplies could be ensured, at least in big cities. Post-Covid, such a model should become more prominent and routine.

4. A person tracking software and RFID based tag machine should be used to track the movement of all the infected people. It is not for surveillance but for ease of communication and monitoring.

5. Ladies at home could be provided material for preparing masks and home-based sanitizer.  This way we can overcome the shortage in a very short time. If each person can prepare a mask for themselves and family members, why do we need one from the market.

6. A complete lockdown with a salary cut of 30% everywhere could help people sustain for 2 months' time. All the temples and social organizations should be taxed and their property should be used for the purpose of fighting Covid.

7. IITs and other research teams should invest in building a low-cost ventilator for fighting with the virus. Apart from this, other tracking software, machines, and related challenges should be handed to IIT research teams. Huge immediate investment should be made in virology and related sciences.

8. Schools, Universities should work through an online system. The capacity of Youtube channels and online video-recorded lectures should be utilized for starting with a routine schedule. Later when things normalize, people can be asked to work extra hours to ensure that enough recovery of lost time is made.

9. Social media has already helped us immensely in spreading the message. However fake news is doing some damage. We need to check free press and journalism in order to bring some sanity and reduce the negativity during these tough times. Irresponsible reporting can result in panic buying and crying.

10. Hoarders should be dealt with strongly. All the violators and hoarders should be put in makeshift detention facilities. Schools or college building could be turned into a makeshift detention facility. Some big private hospitals could also be turned into Covid hospitals.

11. For a sustainable short-medium term, we should think about developing a nightlife economy and shift based economy and essential goods distribution system.

12. China should be held responsible to pay to the world for this immeasurable loss. There should be an extra duty imposed on all the china based import items to count for losses.

13. As a nation, we should completely ban seafood and wildlife food except for some stable diet items like fishes. There should be some sanity in what we eat and whatnot. If we can ban beef then why not seafood and wildlife food.

14. Collect blood from each household. Blood bank teams can go from place to place and ensure enough supplies in the hospitals. We can also make a common list of all the blood banks and person wise blood types which could be useful for later times as well.

The government has already taken various very strong and prudent administrative measures so most of what I am writing is redundant. I have written about specific economic and other measures in my other blogs. Let us pray that things normalize sooner than later and the world is saved from the mayhem.

Urban space design

Consider the horror when the fire ambulance is not able to reach the burning site or When a medical ambulance is stuck in traffic and fails to make it to the hospital on time or children are not left with any park and open spaces to play and practice. Indian urban space has become a rotten ship. Given the congestion, overcrowding and resource crunch, Indian cities have become unsustainable and unmanageable. Part of the reason lies in poor designing, lack of vision and forethinking in building our urban space. Time has come to rethink and redesign Indian urban landscape design and overall life ecosystem.  This blog identifies five such actionable doable low hanging fruits.

1. The first step could be to redevelop all the parks and roads to create underground parking. For example, the Cannaught place circle was redeveloped to host a railway transit point and metro junction. The same could be done to all the parks in all the colonies of Delhi and major cities. It will help in solving the problem of parking and decongest our cities immensely. The park redevelopment could happen as a public-private-people partnership project. The private player can work on a boot operate transfer model and earn a good amount of definite revenue from the park and the parking. Some underground space could also be used as an indoor sports club to help the whole project become sustainable.  

2. Every 5 kilometers there should be a street food karkhana. It could be a multi-story building with fast lifts where all the rediwalah, sabjiwalah, and every other street-side shop could be rented space. The model of street food and roadside vendors should be ended and instead, a home delivery based street food model should take its place. The government can engage in PPPP (Public-private people partnership) to build such karkhanas and rent out fixed-size "thela" space.  Space inside would only be used for food preparation. One section would be sitting space to eat like food courts. But the real salesman would be the delivery guys. Call based or app-based booking of order could be provided by the government. And private delivery service guys can deliver things to the home of the individual or in the food court sitting area. The regulation of the building lies with the government. Various wings like quality assurance officer, food safety officer could be permanently hosted in the space. The permanent fixtures on the roadside selling food items, grocery and fruits would not be allowed anymore in such setup. Rather a close-knit network of government regulatory agencies, karkhana committee (private agency and people of the area), street food maker,  delivery service providers, application provider, and end customer would ensure easy, quality assured access to cheap food. It would decongest our roads, ensure better quality and help in maintaining hygiene and cleanliness. Some rediwalah can operate from home as well and just take the help of ecosystem services of the karkhana. This will make the entire value chain more organized and streamlined. In the context of Delhi, one section of low-income housing buildings can be remodified and used for providing such services within a 5-7 km radius.

3. All the school parks should be compulsorily open to common public for playing outdoor sports. This will provide huge playing space in the community. Delhi has already implemented this scheme with great success.

4. A bidding system should be opened where whoever wishes to sell the land, the government must have the first right to buy. Only if a competing bidder offers more than 15% than the government offer then the other person should be allowed to buy the land piece else government should buy the land. This way the government can create a huge repository of land. This land space would be scattered and fragmented. However, this would be very useful in the event of a large scale mega projects where the government wishes to rehabilitate and resettle people. The government can exchange land and relocate people using this. It would be extremely useful given the fact it is nearly impossible to find a contiguous landscape for development. 

5. All the major markets should be vehicle-free zone except two-wheelers and regulated battery rickshaws (managed by market committee). Three-wheelers and above should be allowed to play only after the closure of market and only for a specific duration. Parking space as mentioned in the first point should be developed beneath the road or beneath the nearby park in order to decongest the market and ease the mobility for the public.

A lot more could be done and there are numerous small actions with high returns but all hinges on the local leadership, public participation and governments focus. Covid-19 has given us an opportunity to think about our public spaces and the problem of crowding. Let us take it seriously and make the best of this opportunity.

Corona - 3: How will it change our lives forever?

Barak Obama once said, "When disaster strikes, it tears the curtain away from the festering problems that we have beneath them." Covid-19 has uncovered the holes in our armors. Our health system, screening, sanitation, and hygiene all stand ruptured at this hour. Indeed these are difficult times and only time will tell which way the Indian elephant will sit after suffering from the most egregious man-made disaster of human history. However, necessity is the mother of invention. Covid-19 brings a host of short to medium-term shifts in the Indian way of living. 

1. A new mode of lifestyle, supply chains, and businesses will emerge. 

 2. Technology innovation will proliferate. The home-based service delivery model will be the new norm. 

3. "Work from Home" model will become a new norm. 

4. Social distancing will bring greater individualism and professional behavior.

5. Covid will turn India to invest more in research, and education.

6. Hygiene and cleanliness will be better understood by the public. Awareness of food safety norms will increase. At least people will start washing hands regularly.

7. There will be lesser crowding in public places. Public spaces will be decongested for at least a few months/years. Though over time normal habits will reemerge if the government fails to tap this opportunity.

8.  The theory of Natural selection will be at play. Stronger/Richer/Healthier will survive.

9. The reading habits of people will strengthen.

10. Family bondings will increase but at the same time, divorce rates will also spike for the short term. Parents will be more valued. The child population will increase. 

11. The remote area habitation will be preferred.

12. Backyard businesses, Homepreneurship will be improved.

If the government and society proactive work thereafter then such medium-term shifts could turn permanent over time. It is high time the government should utilize all its manpower to make the best use of the opportunity in making India a cleaner, decongested, and inclusive society.

Corona - 2 What lies ahead?

The stock market mayhem is continuing unabated. Investors have lost nearly 30 Lakh crore in the last one month. Companies have shifted to work from home model. Businesses have shut down their activities. So a prime question is what lies ahead? The following are the 10 things one can expect in the next eight to twelve month timeframe.

1. Specifically speaking of a country like India, nearly 90% of the workers are in the unorganized sector where no social security is offered. They live in hand to mouth situation. With businesses closing down, these daily wagers and un-skilled workers will find it very tough to survive. Therefore, General Basic Income (GBI) kind of scheme must be on cards where money could be directly deposited to their accounts. 

2. The economic response task force under the chairmanship of the finance minister will take a host of industry-specific measures. It is likely to provide stimulus packages to most affected sectors like Aviation, Tourism, etc. 

3. There will be a definite fiscal slippage of almost 200-300 basis points. Moreover, the interest rates will be lowered in order to provide easy money.

4. There could be a Covid Tax on the general public and corporates for the next 2-3 years come. All the CSR funds, religious and social organizations, NGOs, etc could be put under the Tax net in these times.

5. Every crisis offers an opportunity to break from the past and usher a new future. The Covid crisis will also be the same. It will be an opportunity to reform the taxation structure of the country. All the exemptions on social religious organizations will be taken away. All the exemptions and deductions for the general public could also be taken away.

6. The country will move vigorously towards a cashless economy. More and more transactions will happen online and in card mode.

7. "Work from Home" model will become a norm for IT companies. It will bring down the cost of office space in major cities.

8. There could be a financial emergency at the later stage of the crisis. The salary of government employees will be reduced to half. Many other similar cost-cutting measures will be taken by the central and state government.

9. A population bust will happen 9 months down the line. Husband-Wife with free time locked up in one apartment for 15 days are likely to procreate. 

10. In an extreme scenario, the country may turn beggar. Banks might collapse due to rising NPA.  Stock market losses, Banking failure, high fiscal deficit, civil war-like situation because of high joblessness and heavy external debt could result in a major crisis for the country. The one positive amid all the uncertainty would be political stability, and resolve of the nation.

However, all is not dark. There is a best-case scenario as well where all the above listed 10 phenomena will happen albeit at a reduced scale and with much less intensity. In any case, the timing of Corona could not have been worse. It is akin to a rub of salt on economic wounds from which India is suffering at present. 

  

Corona - 1

When the misfortune comes, it happens in the most unexpected manner. No one would have thought that the smallest one-cell creature will bring life to the standstill. It is not a superstar or an atomic bomb or war amongst nations. Rather it is a fight between nature and homo sapiens and no guesses needed, nature has once again shown us "who is the boss". 

The whole world is in a state of lockdown and isolation. Materialism has come to standstill and possibly will soon crumble under its own weight. All the to-do lists, homework, job duties, have just one-word Quarantine. Most manufacturing plants have closed except for essential services. IT companies have shifted to work from home model. The crisis is so big that one can not discount the possibility of a doomsday,  at least for overcrowded countries like India. Even if we are able to control it, coronavirus will change our lives in many ways forever. The world will not be the same as before. 

WhatsApp university is superbly thriving propagating useful, unuseful information and fake information like wildfire. A lot has already been written on social media, news portals, and multimedia platforms. Amid all the cacophony around coronavirus, it would be blasphemous to not give it deserving space on this blog. 

Our reaction to Corona has been on the lines of a famous quote by Voltaire. At first, the world ignored Corona. Homo sapiens true to their deep-rooted arrogance, rejected nature's call of justice. Soon the ignorance turned into laughter. Indians were specifically joyous about Corona with slogans like "go corona go", local language songs, memes doing rounds on social media. As reality seeped in, the serious fight has begun. Only time will tell who will win the war but with the chirping of birds, return of dolphins to seacoast and dogs fighting on the streets, one can be sure that Corona (in turn nature) has already won the initial battle.

However, what has happened is past and we are already sailing in the present. The existential question for us now is what lies ahead? What could happen 2 to 3 months down the line? What are different credible ways to deal with this crisis? And what is the ray of hope amid all the negativity, and pessimism? My next four blogs will discuss each of these aspects in detail.  Till then, stay safe, stay home and stay alive.