India is facing an existential crisis against COVID-19. Had the debate been simply between livelihood and lives, protection of lives would have been a certain choice. But in India, a large part of the economy survive on hand to mouth situation. Nearly 22% of people are below the poverty line and an additional 15% is just above the poverty line. Hence choice is between immediate loss of lives vs future loss of lives. Therefore, a key question is how to unlock the lockdown and how to resolve this conundrum.
The unlocking of the lockdown is going to as difficult an administrative and economically puzzling task as was the enforcement of lockdown. Considering the cluster spread of COID-19, a decision on withdrawal of Lockdown has to be well thought out decision.
1. Considering the state government's inclination to extend the lockdown and increase in the COVID-19 cases in the past few days, it is better to extend the complete lockdown till 24th April.
2. After 24th April, there should be three phased uplift on the lockdown. Each phase should span for two to three weeks.
3. In the first phase, only essential services, food, and pharmaceutical, supply chain offices, hospitals should be opened. All the malls, shopping complex, dine-restaurant should remain closed. All the private offices (into non-essential services), temples, clubs, social places should remain closed. It will be an approximate complete lockdown. City limits should remain restricted. This phase should last until 4th May.
4. In the second phase, Offices with 40% staff capacity should be opened. Businesses will slowly get back to life. Metro and public transport will operate at 60% capacity. People are encouraged to use private vehicles. All public places like parks, malls, and restaurants, etc. and social gatherings should be banned. This should last till 20th May i.e. another 2 weeks. Intercity travel should remain restricted except for the movement of essential goods and services and in emergency situations. Home delivery of food may be allowed.
5. In the third phase, offices with 60% staff capacity should be opened. Movement within the city should be allowed. Businesses like malls, shopping complexes, etc could be opened but with strict crowd management and sanitization rules. This could last till 31st May.
6. After this, if things are under control and go well, we can open the economy fully with the permission of intercity travel. The decision on the containment zones and hotspot could be taken as per the situation.
In the meantime, the government should unleash its stored food stock of 80 MT lying in FCI godowns. The small teams of young migrant workers resting in government schools should be utilized for driving mobile vans which could deliver food and vegetable at the public's doorstep. And the government should switch to Universal basic Income mode and transfer some cash amount in each account on the basis of the existing balance in the account. Moreover, RBI's and PSU's dividend income contribution to government budgetary support should be increased in order to create some fiscal space in the economy.
These are challenging times and if we are able to overcome these times, we will definitely become a force to reckon with.